Mugabe likely to win with a small margin

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Through New Zimbabwe

A LEADING Zimbabwean political commentator has tipped President Robert Mugabe to “scrap through” in a weekend election but warns that without a unity government, the country would be ungovernable.

Professor Jonathan Moyo, a former information minister and political scientist, said the country was deeply divided, and the outcome of the elections will reveal widespread polarisation which can only be bridged by “a government of many talents”.
“Zimbabwean people want change, and if Mugabe wins, he needs to introduce change,” the incumbent Tsholotsho MP told New Zimbabwe.com in an interview.

“If he goes on to form a Zanu PF government, that’s not what the country needs. He probably does not agree with the term ‘government of national unity’ because he thinks Zimbabweans are united, and we will give him the benefit of doubt.

“But if I am to give him advice, which is advice that any sane person would give him, in fact advice that he should give himself, he needs a government of all talents to inspire confidence among Zimbabweans and restore his credibility with the international community. His survival requires that.”

Moyo, who said he would never rejoin Zanu PF, expects Mugabe to gain a slender majority to pip his main rival Morgan Tsvangirai, with independent candidate and former finance minister Simba Makoni coming “a distant third”.

The former university lecturer who is seeking re-election as an independent in the Matabeleland North constituency said recent threats by army generals and President Mugabe that they would reject an opposition victory pointed to growing panic at Tsvangirai’s late surge.

A closely run election, Moyo said, presented the possibility of a second round of voting if no candidate gets a clear majority of 51 percent of the total vote – a requirement in the Electoral Act.

It has been pointed out that while the Electoral Act makes a requirement for a 51 percent majority for an outright winner to be declared, a provision in the law's schedule – an addendum to the act which is meant to provide explanatory detail to the main part of the law – says that the candidate who simply gets the most votes is to be declared the winner.

Moyo said where a conflict existed between a schedule and an Act, the schedule cannot take precedence.

“If Mugabe gets less than 51 percent and declares himself winner, that will immediately precipitate a Kenyan scenario,” he said in reference to post-election violence that rocked Kenya and pushed President Mwai Kibaki to embrace opposition leaders in a unity government. “But I won’t be surprised if he did that because he is certainly desperate to win this election by any means, although I’m sure he prefers hook over crook.”

jonathan moyo

zimbabwe

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I respect you Prof Jonathan Moyo,but strongly believes you are an opportunist who take little chances to impress certain carhorts. Robert Mugabe was very unlikely to win this election, by any chance given the six digit inflation figure, severe unemployment and misery among the povo.
A government of national unity is not necessary, as long as Robert Mugabe remains in power.Mugabe is the biggest liability and not the solution and Zimbabwe needs new people with new and realistic ideas, not his unimpressive land policies that have reduced the country from a once vibrant country to an economic basket case. Mugabe need to understand that Zimbabwe is a country of 13million people and not an estate owned by his family and friends. This is the time for truth and Prof, if you want to be President, then start the cause rather than spending much of your time criticising people that are interested in creating a new Zimbabwe. During your time as Information minister, you were Zanu Pf bone and marrow, but your unceremonious departure created a new person in you.This is the time not to be tempted by those Zanu Pf monsters anymore, and it is time for you not to show any sympathy to Mugabe either. The change that MDC has been working hard for, is now about to be stolen by the despot who is holding the country at ransom to boost his ego. Zimbabwe will never heal, neither will it forget.
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