Mugabe can't stomach defeat

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By Prof. Jonathan Moyo

IF there is one sobering thing that can be unequivocally said about why the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has scandalously delayed the announcement of the March 29 presidential election, it is simply that President Robert Mugabe did not win the election and is now desperately trying to steal the result through an unjustified recount because he does not have any prospect of winning a run-off or a re-run.

Had Mugabe won the election, even with less than the absolute majority required under the Electoral Act, ZEC would have announced the result ages ago and Zimbabweans would have been spared the constitutional uncertainty and political anxiety that have put the nation on the brink of utter chaos and mayhem.

The simple truth which ZEC has found hard to stomach and which Mugabe and his shocked cronies have found hard to swallow is that Morgan Tsvangirai won the presidential election even if with less than the required absolute majority. In other words, Tsvangirai got more votes than Mugabe and thus defeated him.

If the Electoral Act had not been amended after the 2002 presidential election to require a run-off where no candidate gets an absolute majority, Tsvangirai would have been sworn in by now and Zimbabwe would be in a totally new situation under his MDC government and we would not have the current charade of a dissolved cabinet whose defeated ministers are now seeking to unconstitutionally smuggle themselves back into office under spurious but self-serving interpretations of Section 31E of the Constitution.

It is common cause that Mugabe dissolved not just parliament but also cabinet before the March 29 elections and this fact was widely reported in the media.

What must be understood is that in terms of Section 31E (1) (a) of the Constitution, the significance of the dissolution of cabinet by the president is that it is constitutionally the same as the removal from office of vice-presidents, ministers and deputy ministers. When the president dissolves cabinet, it means that vice-presidents, ministers and deputy ministers have all been dismissed and removed from their offices in one fell swoop.

There are two scenarios under which cabinet is typically dissolved or dismissed in Zimbabwe: one happens before a cabinet reshuffle and the other before a general election. In either case, the dissolution means that there is no cabinet thereafter and thus there are no government ministers. Many times in the past, Mugabe has dissolved cabinet before a reshuffle and persons not reappointed in the reshuffle have not remained as ministers on grounds that the dissolution was merely an administrative matter with no constitutional significance.

Given that Mugabe has not reappointed anyone to reconstitute the cabinet that he dissolved last month, Zimbabwe right now does not have a cabinet. This means there is no government. As such, there is now a constitutional vacuum which is made worse by the fact that the country is also going through an unprecedented economic meltdown whose resolution requires an elected government with a requisite economic recovery plan.

The only exception, which is not much of a consolation, is that the dissolution of the cabinet in March did not affect the embattled Mugabe who appointed it and who, even if defeated on March 29, is nevertheless empowered by Section 29 of the Constitution to unhappily continue in office until the person elected as President on March 29 takes over the reins of governance.

The constitutional crisis now gripping the nation arises from ZEC’s delinquent failure to announce the result of the March 29 presidential election and that failure has in turn prevented the democratic and constitutional processes from yielding a new President to enable the country to move forward in a stable and cohesive manner cemented by national unity and the law.

Against this background, ZEC’s perverse delay in announcing the result of the presidential election leaves Zimbabweans and the international community with only one gloomy conclusion: the defeated Mugabe and his shocked hangers-on are using the delay to scheme up a dirty game plan whose nefarious purpose is to reverse Tsvangirai’s electoral victory with the collusion of ZEC at all cost and by any means available. This is being done under a barrage of confused and confusing Zanu PF talk around a recount, runoff or rerun when the result has not been announced.

In the circumstances, ZEC’s delay in announcing the result has become inherently destabilising to the detriment of both the national interest and national security.

As far as the national interest is concerned, there was no reason on earth why the nation went to great lengths and at great cost to hold a presidential election in terms of the law on March 29 if there’s was a predetermination by officialdom that only one particular candidate, Mugabe, had to win or else all hell would break loose.

The outcome of an election is determined by the voters and not by the whims of officialdom. The voters rejected Mugabe on March 29 and officialdom must unconditionally and graciously accept that electoral verdict in the national interest even if some officials have debatable or even understandable reservations about Tsvangirai’s leadership, ideology or policies.

If officialdom uses all sorts of self-indulgent pretexts to reject an electoral outcome that has been determined by the will of the people, as is currently happening, that rejection necessarily threatens national security by exposing the country to hostile external interference. This is because the international community, especially Zimbabwe’s neighbours in SADC, cannot be expected to stand idly by while Mugabe digs in and embarks on a scorched earth policy against his own people and country for the sole purpose of reversing an unannounced election result won by Tsvangirai. Zimbabwe’s detractors won’t miss such an unfortunate opportunity created by what can only be Mugabe’s contempt for the electorate with the assistance of ZEC.

Because Mugabe is so stubborn as to be incapable of doing the right thing on his own, those who still have his ear and the ear of the military and security complex around him, need to appreciate three inescapable realities facing officialdom and communicate them accordingly:

• The current electoral stalemate created by ZEC on Mugabe’s behalf cannot be resolved through a recount, rerun or runoff. It would be foolhardy to use an election to resolve an election impasse. What is needed is a negotiated settlement for a transitional process that recognises the will of the people as expressed on March 29 while also appreciating Mugabe’s institutional sensitivities and personal anxieties along with those of his close associates in key organs of the state.

• Zimbabweans have crossed the electoral Rubicon which means that Mugabe simply cannot win any election; not even one which is neither free nor fair in his favour. Mugabe’s days of electoral victories are irretrievably gone.

• In the most unlikely event that Mugabe were to win a recount, runoff or rerun by hook or by crook and thus remain in office, the economy would reject him with devastating consequences for the livelihood of ordinary people to the point of necessitating never before seen chaos and mayhem.

What this means is that Mugabe no longer has any electoral option involving him as a candidate outside a negotiated settlement for a gracious exit. He is certain to be humiliated in untold ways if he should be unwise enough to participate in a runoff or rerun as no rational voter can see him turning around the economy or just running this country for the next five years.

The Zanu PF claims that only Mugabe can secure the gains of the liberation struggle in general and the land reform programme in particular are plain silly and if they are true, then God help us because Mugabe is not going to be with us for any sustainable period in revolutionary terms.

zimbabwe

robert mugabe

african politics

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Comments

Moyo is a shining star.. hate him or love him the guy knows his stuff and his message falls short of being phrophetic.....MDC needs him and so does any other seriously minded political movement under the sun needs. he was first to speak about a run off but out of greed and political immaturity Mdc refused to see the light and took ride at the economic woes bedeviling the country.. yes no sane zumbo can vote Mugabe but one has to be sober and level headed to remove mugabe from his chair.
Its hard for me to trust the Professor because of his previous alliances.

My question is if the Jonathan Moyo is so critical of the Mugabe regime why is he not out there on CNN or BBC criticizing the Government. I know that he is an intelligent man and that maybe his intelligence was being misused by the Mugabe Regime but now is the time for him to speak up or forever remain silent. As they say during wedding, Speak now
Half the problems we facing are beause of the change in the constitution which now allows for 50plus one vote % to get absolute majority.Moyo was part and parcel in pennining that constitution.He infact is the one who came up with the idea.Moyo was clever to let Mugabe fire him cause he saw that he had made a mistake in sleeping with the old geeser.Moyo will go down in histroy as an architect of our demise.He played a very big role and he knows exactly what his for handlers are going to respond to the current situation remember these are some of Africa's greatest minds and they never anticipated defeat so they will take their toime to figure something out before they act accordingly.Being an intergral part of the problem,Moyo must equally play an important role in resolving the situation he helped create if ever he wants to be taken seriously by ordinary zimbabweans.Unless Moyo does something to undo the damage,l and a muiltitude others who share the same sentiments with me will never forgive Moyo for the part he played in destroying our beautiful country!
Mr Moyo, can you please drive some sense into these ZANU and MDC lunatics' minds.They are selling cheap politics to us and clearly dont understand the dynamics of politics.
Professor Jonathan Moyo is surely a well informed person in as far as the field of politics goes, esp Zimbabwean politics. This however does not mean everything that he says should be taken at face value and as the gospel truth! He surely seems to believe that there is a plan to change the March 29 electoral result and I say he "also knows how the same was achieved in 2002!" May he then tell the world how ZANU PF rigged in 2002 as a matter of fact so that this theory of a "plan to rig" this time around may stick more firmly!! Your Comment Pliz Prof!!!
I think its now time for Zimbabweans to fight for our independence again.

It is ironic that today the 18th of April we are supposed to celebrate independence yet we are still imprisoned by the Mugabe regime. We were naive to believe that Mugabe would give us back our country without spilling blood again.

I once again urge the Professor whom i still don't trust to assist not only the MDC but all Zimbabweans at large to deliver us from this evil that has gripped us for the past 28 years.
this is the real truth Proffessor. Its pretty hard for Bob to admit defeat & its already too late for him to through in the towel. Its so embarrasing for a veteran leader to admit at the 11the hour so he will try all the tricks in the book but I guess the ink has already dried out for all that. Its a mere waste of scarce resource for a re-run or run -off. The best thing for him to do is just to go in exile and save himself for the bigest shame ever in African History.
This is the real truth Proffessor. Its pretty hard for Bob to admit defeat & its already too late for him to throw in the towel. Its so embarrasing for a veteran leader to admit at the 11th hour so he will try all the tricks in the book but I guess the ink has already dried out for all that. Its a mere waste of scarce resource for a re-run or run -off. The best thing for him to do is just to go in exile and save himself the bigest shame ever in African History.
Asi Chii Nhai vana vangu. Zvino mukadzinga murume wangu basa mari yekuenda kushoping kuParis ndinozoiwanepiko. Ah izvi zvavakutoda Mai Chisamba

Ndini wenyu Second first Lady.

Wake up Grace Zimbabweans now want change. We are just waiting for the spark that will light the fires of change and once the fires start not even the Military can stop the people.

Remember the Words of Ian Smith (about black people never ruling this country) he soon had to eat them
imbwa yemunhu iyi. why then is he back in zanu. he knows if you cant beat them join them. vana vake ku heritage vodzingirwa school fees akati mari muzanu. manje we want to fix you!
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Had Mugabe won the election, even with less than the absolute majority required under the Electoral Act, ZEC would have announced the result ages ago and Zimbabweans would have been spared the constitutional uncertainty and political anxiety that have put the nation on the brink of utter chaos and mayhem
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